Photograph By Kyle Norton
It should be easier to buy a house in Greenwich. For years, the market here was a finely tuned machine, one that dealt with the occasional rude shocks in the economy with calm fortitude. But the rules seem to change every year. Outside forces have infiltrated our quiet world and made it shockingly competitive.
Talk to the brokers here, and everyone naturally decries the miserably-scarce inventory: Fewer than ninety properties were available to start the year, where there used to be about 450. This situation alone should make about half the market very happy, i.e., the folks actually putting a house up for sale. Oh, the suitors will be lining up at your door, clutching carnations and snapping open checkbooks.
But, brother, that leaves the buyers as grimly determined as gold prospectors staking out a claim in the territory.
Even with the inventory squeeze, last year’s home sales racked up the usual $2 billion total. “Even though everybody says there’s no inventory,” notes Jeff Jackson of the Corcoran Group. “Shocking, right? And this does not include all the off-market sales, the number is actually bigger.”
Who knows how much more business was conducted in secret? “Off-market” has definitely become a thing. It’s clear that the times call for a serious game plan. We consulted with the top authorities here to share their insights and strategies.
CURRENT MARKET
The numbers today appear quite exalted, so much so that the year started with nothing available under a million and only eight houses available under $2 million. And should a fresh house appear in the listings, it’s not there for long.
“The average days on the market last year was twenty-four days,” reports Pam Pagnani of Sotheby’s. “In 2023, it was thirty-five days. So things are moving more quickly.”
“If you’re dealing in the $4 million-and-under market, you’ve got to be ready to fly,” says Jennifer Leahy of Douglas Elliman. ”I’ve seen deals close in forty-eight hours.”
Anyone involved in this market is doing speed drills. “Even the mortgage brokers are stepping up to the plate,” says Jen Danzi. “They have to in order to stay in the game. Mortgage brokers are getting them done in fourteen days versus the forty-five to sixty days that we saw in the past.”
Of course, in this market, you certainly don’t want mortgage contingencies. Ideally, you don’t even want a mortgage.
“It’s hard for buyers to win in a multiple- bidding situation with a financial contingency,” says Ellen Mosher of Houlihan-Lawrence.
In this gung-ho market, every deal is a bidding war. And brokers here have become accustomed to the clients whose final bid is eyes-open-wide large.
“Greenwich is unique,” says Eric Bjork of Berkshire-Hathaway, smiling. “When your client’s aircraft is worth more than their real estate, that’s kind of an unusual situation.”
It was the Covid crisis of 2020-21 that brought about a renewed obsession to own a home here. Folks barreled out of the city as fast as possible to look over our gardens and civic amenities. While the crisis has diminished, the market is still being pushed by a host of other pressures: Manhattan and Brooklyn prices continue to skyrocket, and Europeans are looking for a safe place to park money. Greenwich brokers are already hearing from Los Angeles people needing to relocate quickly.
4 Cherry Tree Lane
West-facing water views offer gorgeous sunsets at this Harbor Point Association home.
As this is happening, millions of retiring Boomers are creating family trusts. Those who can built legacy properties.
“Such a tremendous amount of family wealth is being transferred through generations,” observes Shelly Tretter Lynch of Compass. “We’re seeing that pour out into real-estate market. People are looking for family homes for generations. When people buy these large assets, they are keeping them within the family.”
Kevin Sneddon of Compass reports that there were 502 sales last year of single-family homes. “The transaction volume is probably down five percent, whereas the median price is probably up 18 percent.”
“It’s obviously a seller’s market,” says Ellen Mosher of Houlihan-Lawrence. “Your property is desired by a large number of people, because inventory levels are so low. One of the biggest challenges sellers face is understanding, when presented with multiple-bid situations, who the best buyer really is and making sure the deal actually goes through. We saw far more buyers walking away from deals than we should have.
“There are plenty of people who want to bid high on a property. But are they actually going to transact? That’s really when you have to rely on your agent and make sure they are vetting people properly and making sure people are truly financially capable.”
“If you’re serious about buying,” says David Wilk of Raveis, “you have to know you’re competing with other buyers on most properties. You need to be ready across the board. If you’re going to be a cash buyer, you need to have that verification-of-funds letter.
If you’re getting a mortgage, have preapproval in place. And you have to anticipate multiple bids and be prepared that you’ll need to bid higher than the asking price.
“The sellers need to price houses competitively and let the buyers get the price up. I liken it to going to an auction. That used to be a bad word in real estate, but if you’re creating excitement, that’s how you’re going to create it.”
BUYER’S PLAYBOOK
Be Prepared
Listings can disappear in a day—have your game plan ready.
Know Your Budget
Understand your financial limits before falling in love with a property.
Prioritize Location
Think beyond the house—consider schools, commute times and neighborhood offerings.
Trust Your Instincts
If a home feels right, make the offer!
OFF-MARKET SALES
One of the biggest surprises in the Greenwich scene is the rise of the “off market”—houses that are neither advertised nor put on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). But maybe it’s not a surprise. Greenwich has always had a secret history of the “shadow inventory,” houses known only by the brokers and the realty illuminati. This was especially true in backcountry, where the rarefied, baronial estates sometimes took years to sell. It just wasn’t seemly to have your palazzo on the open market for so long.
Now, many offices admit that up to fifty percent of their sales are occurring off-market.
Why do it secretly? Shelly Tretter Lynch sees it as people are trying to protect their identity. “Over the years, we’ve seen many more LLCs and trusts put into place.”
Sneddon adds, “Some people are so security-conscious they don’t want floor plans on the internet.”
21 Vista Drive
At $31.5 million, this estate is one of our largest sales on record.
BUILDER: SBP HOMES
Instagram: @sbphomes
Website: www.sbphomes.com
ARCHITECTURE: Tanner White Architects
Instagram: @tannerwhitearchitects
Going off-market makes it all the more important for the seller to have a savvy-as-hell broker on their side. The sale will only
be as good as their connections.
How’s about going it alone? “Being an unrepresented buyer just makes no sense,” Sneddon says. “You have no access to the off-market. If you’re in a multiple-bid situation, and other bidders are repped by top brokers, they’re going to clean your clock.”
Being off-market, of course, will always mean a tighter pool of bidders. “To get the optimal price,” maintains Ellen Mosher, “I’m still a big believer in putting it out there on the market for the whole world to see. How else will you know what you could have achieved?”
What’s pushing people into the off-market domain? One factor might be that ubiquitous old website with the weird price estimates, Zillow.
It was once known as a simple website for cruising real-estate possibilities. As the site gained power, however, it began to use it.
“Zillow takes our photographs,” says Shelly Tretter Lynch of the Compass company, “puts them on their site and then in turn tries to sell back a lead for that property and then charges for it. They’re taking our information without us knowing anything about it.”
Instead of directing browsers to the listing agent, it steers them to their “select” troupe of brokers, who might well be based in Perth Amboy or Parsippany. Zillow will sell that lead to anybody, Sneddon says, regardless of your experience or knowledge of that listing.
“Most of the time, the buyers are thinking they’re getting the listing agent. They call and say, ‘Hey, I want to see 123 Main Street.’ And the agent says, ‘Fine, I’ll meet you at one o’clock.’ They meet them outside and tell them they’re not the listing agent, actually. It’s like a bait and switch.”
But now, especially with last summer’s NAR settlement breathing down everyone’s neck [see sidebar, page 74], “You cannot go out with a buyer now unless you have them under a buyer contract,” he says.
The Zillow strategy strikes Sneddon as grimly amusing. “You’ve never met them, and they’re saying, ‘You’ve got to sign a contract with me and pay me two-and-a-half percent if the seller is not willing to pay me’? The likelihood that you’re going to convert that buyer is really low.”
In the last quarter, brokers have reported a concerted movement among buyers to search out the actual listing agent. Customers seem to have lost that zest for the Zestimate.
WHAT’S HOT?
We don’t hear much talk about that “hot neighborhood” anymore. With fewer options comes a diminished choosiness.
“What we’ve found post-Covid is that the neighborhoods are less important,” says Jeff Jackson. “Now it’s the property itself and not the location. That’s a big shift.
“It used to be what school you went to. Now it’s driven more by the age of the house, new construction, ceiling height and finishes. These are things the drive demand. Location is still important, and if you can command all, you get astronomical results.”
The location for which there is just one answer is the waterfront. Jackson had a customer extend his search south to Rye until finally finding a property up the coast on the shores of Southport.
Round Hill Road
Nearly 10,000 feet of luxury living
One of the biggest sales (at least among the publicly discussed) was the waterfront Robert Steinberg mansion that went for $31.5 million. It had been on and off the market over the years, and a decade ago the ask was $54 million before the reductions. Perhaps its provenance proved decisive. Back in 1982, the 5.8-acre estate was bought by Donald Trump and then-wife Ivana. After their 1992 divorce, it was Ivana’s until she sold it in 1998. (Joseph Barbieri of Sotheby’s International brought the buyer, and Rob Johnson of Brown Harris Stevens represented the seller.)
But most often, prices rise, and sometimes to surprising amounts. Viewing the price histories of properties can lead to some confounding revelations. Raveis handled both sides of a sale at 248 Round Hill Road, a 3.41-acre, 9,800-square-foot estate that closed in late fall for $11.4 million. That is not an unfamiliar sum for mid-country, but, wait a minute, the property sold a couple years ago for $3.5 million. That would be called adding value.
Another intriguing price history was seen at 543 Stanwich Road, which Jen Danzi Real Estate was happy to move for $16.2 million; the listing agent was Jesse Marinak of Serhant. But didn’t that property sell ten years ago for $2.8 million? “That house was torn down, and they built a brand new one,” Jen responds. “That shows what you can do when you invest in a new home.”
Stanwich Road
A modern colonial filled with grand spaces
Photographs: Round Hill Road by Realty Plans of Stamford Photography for Robert Didonato, William Raveis; Stanwich Road by Rise Visual Media for Jesse Marinak, Serhant.
DESIRABLE BY DESIGN
Do not get the idea that folks are now able to foist some tattered hovel on the market and get set to pull in the long green. Today’s buyers, more than ever, demand move-in-ready homes.
The favored style? Call it Classic Outside/Modern Inside.
“People want a bright house,” says Ellen Mosher. “People are looking for sunlight. They like an open floor plan with some traditional aspects. They want the indoor/outdoor California-living vibe.”
“Lifestyle is a big part of the interior design, today more than ever,” says Shelly Tretter Lynch. “Because homes are now so well insulated, it means that people can include large slabs of glass and have continuous light streaming through their house, if that’s what they’re looking for, because it’s still energy-efficient.”
Besides plenty of light, Jeff Jackson notes that people these days are looking for spacious ceiling height. “People want nine feet,” he says. “Even the $2-3 million buyer is looking for nine feet.”
The Summit Club
Sweeping views and sleek design are the hallmarks here.
The business of staging that sunlit house is now so well established that sometimes it might get too refined.
“So often, you’re showing an interior that looks like a white cube,” says Jennifer Leahy, “but now there are colors, and people seem to like them. I love all the new colors.”
The staging is still critical, she says. “More and more buyers are buying the furnishing, too. So, sellers should get that interior really prepped.”
High-tech demands continue to rise. Today’s new homeowner wants to do everything through their phones, including house temperatures and having, you know, a plate of waffles waiting.
While security measures are the top obsession, Jen Danzi sees other applications of new tech: “One of the big trends we are seeing in customization is the infrared saunas.”
The newly complicated homes are now watched over by newly concerned insurance agencies. “Insurance has become a big issue,” says Pam Pagnani of Sotheby’s International. “Once it was easy to shift insurance from a former property to the new one. Now you’ve got water issues, flood issues, you’ve got carriers who will come to your house with a drone and look at the roof and tell you,‘Sorry we’re not insuring you, that roof needs to be replaced.’And roofs can be anywhere from $20,000 to $300,000. So, this has had a major impact on transactions.”
North Street
This Hamptons-inspired home combines modern craftsmanship with timeless design across four light-filled levels.
Who’s Paying
For Realtors, one of the most nettlesome stories of last year was the NAR settlement, which changed the way commissions are paid. Suddenly, deals were fraught with negotiations.
“That was the last thing our industry needed,” says Eric Bjork, Senior Vice President at Berkshire Hathaway. “It was seemingly a small lawsuit in Missouri that reverberated across the industry and had some companies settling for something that frankly we never did.”
In the long-established system used by the million-plus members of the National Association of Realtors, the buyer’s broker earned a commission that came out of the sale price.
“The lawsuit alleged that sellers didn’t realize that, which I find hard to believe. I’ve been in this business for longer than I care to admit. Has there been price fixing? Not to my knowledge. In Connecticut, we’ve been fortunate to have mandated buyer brokerage since 1997. Commission terms are in writing. It’s taken a transparent system and made it less so.”
Seventeen states had mandated rules similar to Connecticut’s, but those that didn’t, such as New York, have discovered new learning curves.
“For purchasers who have plenty of assets, it’s not a concern,” adds Bjork. “But a lot of first-time buyers don’t have extra money to pay their broker commission.”
This is happening, when buyers’ emotions are already running high. Things are running pretty hot in real estate offices, too, especially as some have had to pay penalties to settle the lawsuit. Most suggest that the matter is far from over.
Photographs: Modern Angles For Kevin Snedden, Compass
CONCLUSIONS
It’s clear that people are willing to pay a lot to live in Greenwich. And that does not make it easy for the newcomer trying to get a foot in the door. At present the supply of condos is not vast. This creates equal pressure on the newcomer’s opposite—the empty-nester rattling around in some big digs. About half the transactions in Greenwich come from locals moving up or down.
“A lot of people are sitting in beautiful homes in mid-country and Old Greenwich and backcountry,” Ellen Mosher points out, “and they’re not selling, because they don’t have an opportunity to downsize.”
Although the median price for condos is about $1 million, it is now not rare to see the grander units going for $4 million. Mark Pruner of Compass calls the luxury townhome “the Holy Grail.”
Folks might be downsizing, but they’re not necessarily downpricing.
The intriguing story for 2025 will be, What happens with all those big-ticket projects getting proposed and heavily debated? Many are right now in various states of development. The downtown area, in high demand for its “walking distance” position, sees a number of big-ticket projects in the works. Some residential buildings are offering affordable-housing units in order to secure approval.
Greenwich Crossing, the massive downtown project branching off from the new train station, is leading the way and set to be finished by end of 2025.
In the neighborhood, there are enough projects afoot to just about triple the population. On Benedict Court, just off Greenwich Avenue, there are plans for a six-story, 120-unit building. Then there is the four-story building set for 581-585 W. Putnam to offer 44 units. Then north of Westchester Airport there is a proposed residential layout of 198 units. Then, right off 240 Greenwich Avenue, there are hopes to erect a six-story, 60-unit building. How many of these make it to welcome-mat stage deserves a close watch.
Meanwhile, “Greenwich buyers are heading over the border to Armonk,” says Jen Danzi, “where I have the Summit Club Residences designed by Granoff Architects listed. Pricing is competitive to Greenwich and with tons of amenities, including golf, pool, tennis, pickleball and a fitness center.”
In a troubled country, Fairfield County has been singled out for its special élan vital. There is a reason besides proximity that brings so many Europeans here. All those folks who migrate to Sarasota or Austin and then quickly wheel back, it’s for a reason.
So, why this town? “It’s always been the schools, the libraries and everything else that makes Greenwich wonderful,” says Shelly Tretter Lynch. “Many people who have great wealth have definitely given back to the community for the enjoyment of all. The donations of land to the Land Trust. The tremendous support for the Bruce Museum. There is just a lot of funding that comes from the public. There are triple-A services that you cannot find in other areas of the country but are available here.”
Now, if only the inventory would rise, more could enjoy it.
Greenwich Crossing
The major downtown development near the train station is set for completion by the end of 2025.
Photographs: Beyer Blinder Belle Architects & Planners LLP